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なぜ間違えたのか⑱

第十八弾!
今回は、「平均への回帰のワナ」
~なぜ、「医者に行ったら元気になった」は間違いなのか?~
統計学的な話で、「物事が一方向に偏った時は、すぐに偏りが解消される反対方向に動くことが多い」というものだ。
医者に行ったから治ったのではなく、医者に行かなくても治っていたかもしれないし、会社の業績が悪くなった時、コンサルタントを雇ったのち、業績が回復してもコンサルタントの力量かどうかは判断できない。
もっとも注意が必要なのは、褒めることよりも叱る事のほうが効果があるという結論に陥る可能性があるという。
例えば、
成績上位者は褒められ、成績下位者はしかられる。
次のテストで、成績上位者は少し下がり、成績下位者が少し上がる。だから、叱る方がよいのだと。
本気でそう思っている人を私は知っている。とても残念な人だった。あ、本人の名誉のために言っておくが、普段は普通の人であり、むしろ博識ですごいと思う。冗談も言えるし。
だが、こと仕事になるといろいろなワナにはまってしまっている。元気かなぁ?